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In November, 2002, Medact published a report entitled "Collateral Damage: The Health and Environmental Cost of War on Iraq." Medact, a London-based organization, is an affiliate of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. Their report "attempts to assess the impact of the war . . . Calculations are based on evidence from previous conflicts with comparable aspects such as the 1990-1991 Gulf War, Panama, Lebanon, Chechnya, Mogadishu and the former Yugoslavia, and on military simulations." Possible Human Cost of War on Iraq Direct conflict casualties in/soon after conventional war:
Baghdad: Iraqi combatant deaths 2,000-50,000 Iraqi combatant wounded 6,000-200,000 Iraqi civilian deaths 2,000-50,000 Iraqi civilians wounded 6,000-200,000 Coalition combatant deaths 100-5,000 Coalition combatants wounded 300-20,000 Additional deaths if chemical or biological weapons are used 410-21,000
Basra, Diyala, Kirkuk, Mosul: Iraqi combatant deaths 1,200-30,000 Iraqi combatant wounded 3,600-120,000 Iraqi civilian deaths 1,200-30,000 Iraqi civilians wounded 3,600-120,000 Coalition combatant deaths 60-3,000 Coalition combatants wounded 180-12,000 Additional deaths if chemical or biological weapons are used 246-12,600
Within three months of end of conventional war Iraqi civilians 4,000-6,000 Iraqi civilian deaths in civil war 20,000 Refugee deaths 15,000-30,000 Children under 5 excess deaths 23,500
Nuclear attack on Baghdad only Deaths 306,600-3,608,000 "The total of possible deaths on all sides during the conflict and the next three months, excluding civil war within Iraq and nuclear attacks, ranges from 48,716-261,100." Chemical, biological, or nuclear weapon use would increase the range to 376,316-3,889,100. "Both ranges exclude deaths from other indirect and longer-term effects of the war in Iraq and beyond. Additional postwar adverse health effects could total 200,000." For the full report, see www.medact.org.
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